A two-horse race

Watching last Sunday’s Canadian Grand Prix I had two observations.  The first was a very positive view of Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso showing the world why they are at the top of their game, the second was my negative perspective on the ability of their competition, including team mates, to mount a sustained challenge.  This is hugely disappointing because, once again, we are left feeling that the status-quo in Formula One will be maintained for another season.  

Who would bet against Vettel winning a 4th consecutive title and Alonso being his nearest rival?

Like many, I have huge admiration for both Mark Webber and Felipe Massa, but for whatever reason - including the internal priorities and nuances of both Red Bull Racing and Ferrari’s operational management - neither appears able to truly challenge their team mates over the course of a season.  Both seem destined to remain multiple race-winners, but never to spearhead their team’s championship assaults.

Mercedes Benz has come a long way this year but race-pace continues to dampen the enthusiasm created by better qualifying performances.  For whatever reason the massed-brains of Mercedes’ technical leadership and excellent facilities at the ex-Honda factory have been unable to produce a championship-challenging car.  The success of the renamed Brawn team in 2009, with their double-diffuser trick, seems a long time ago.  

Rosberg’s success in Monaco was impressive, but qualifying made his race victory possible on a track which needs a radical re-thinking in order to create a viable and safe overtaking spot.  The exit of the tunnel is the one clear opportunity these days, but it’s 50/50 that you’ll have an accident or overshoot the chicane.

Lewis Hamilton is having a good first season at Mercedes and I am sure that when he lapped the McLarens in Montreal he will have given himself a little smile.  His decision to shift team now looks very clever.  But his demeanour in Canada once again raised questions, especially when he told media that he had other things on his mind.  It’s difficult not to have the impression that Lewis is susceptible to mood-swings, external distractions and the resulting lack of focus away from the race track.  Behind the wheel he remains impressive, but certainly not as dominant as we once expected.  We really need to see Hamilton back on the top step.

McLaren has slipped, and badly.  I have a growing sense that Jenson Button’s energy levels are being tested by a poor car; and not for the first time in his career either.  He must be truly fed up with being handed machinery that isn’t capable of winning, and it was sad to read his comments that this year’s title challenge is over.  And team mate Sergio Perez?  Well, those giant-killing performances at Sauber will have to be cherished for some time; he isn’t having an enjoyable introduction to the top flight of Formula One and we will have to wait for McLaren to give him a quick car before reaching a conclusion about his overall ability.

Lotus had a poor Canada, and we can only hope that Kimi finds a fresh turn of speed from his car during the summer months.  His raw talent, outright speed and consistency are a bright spot away from the dominance of Vettel and Alonso, and I suspect I am in the majority in feeling that Raikkonen completes the current ‘Top 3’ driver line-up.

The rest?  Well, let’s be honest, the remaining Formula One teams score points at best but  lack the resources, creativity and overall package to threaten for wins.  This is also very disappointing, especially when everyone hoped that Williams was returning to a better time following its victory in Spain last year. Watching Valtieri Bottas move steadily backwards from 3rd place on the grid in Montreal must have been very dispiriting for the Williams family.

We can only hope that as we enter the mid-way point in the championship Ferrari find a way to qualify better, so that Alonso can properly challenge Vettel, or that Mercedes or Lotus can find a significant performance step.  If not, then on the basis of Montreal, Sebastian Vettel will this year move one step closer to matching fellow countryman Michael Schumacher’s run of 5 consecutive World Championships.   This is one two-horse race likely to be won by a Bull.